Are Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise?

Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. Working Paper 07-2

Invention in Philippine Industry

This paper is presented at the Third National Convention on Statistics at the Philippine International Convention Center on December 13-14, 1982. It discusses the different legal instruments utilized in the Philippines to encourage invention and to facilitate technology purchase. A brief history of the patent system is provided.productivity, industry sector, patent and license, investment, invention and innovation

Future benefits and applications of intelligent on-board processing to VSAT services

The trends and roles of VSAT services in the year 2010 time frame are examined based on an overall network and service model for that period. An estimate of the VSAT traffic is then made and the service and general network requirements are identified. In order to accommodate these traffic needs, four satellite VSAT architectures based on the use of fixed or scanning multibeam antennas in conjunction with IF switching or onboard regeneration and baseband processing are suggested. The performance of each of these architectures is assessed and the key enabling technologies are identified

Bar-grid oscillators

Grid oscillators are an attractive way of obtaining high power levels from the solid-state devices, since potentially the output powers of thousands of individual devices can be combined. The active devices do not require an external locking signal, and the power combining is done in free space. Thirty-six transistors were mounted on parallel brass bars, which provide a stable bias and have a low thermal resistance. The output power degraded gradually when the devices failed. The grid gave an effective radiated power of 3 W at 3 GHz. The directivity was 11.3 dB, and the DC-to-RF efficiency was 22%. Modulation capabilities of the grid were demonstrated. An equivalent circuit model for the grid is derived, and comparison with experimental results is shown

A 100-Element MESFET Grid Oscillator

A planar grid oscillator which combines the outputs of 100 devices quasi-optically is presented. The planar configuration is attractive because it is compatible with present-day IC fabrication techniques. In addition, the grid's structure leads to a transmission-line model that can readily be applied to the design of larger grids in the future. This approach is particularly attractive for wafer-scale integration at millimeter wavelengths. The grid oscillates near 5 GHz and can be frequency tuned with mirror spacing from 4.8 GHz to 5.2 GHz. The far-field radiation patterns for the grid are shown. From the pattern, the directivity is calculated to be 16 dB. The ERP is measured to be 25 W. The DC input power is 3 W, and the power radiated from the grid is calculated to be 0.625 W. This gives a DC-to-RF efficiency of 20%

Pre- and Post-selection paradoxes and contextuality in quantum mechanics

Many seemingly paradoxical effects are known in the predictions for outcomes of intermediate measurements made on pre- and post-selected quantum systems. Despite appearances, these effects do not demonstrate the impossibility of a noncontextual hidden variable theory, since an explanation in terms of measurement-disturbance is possible. Nonetheless, we show that for every paradoxical effect wherein all the pre- and post- selected probabilities are 0 or 1 and the pre- and post-selected states are nonorthogonal, there is an associated proof of contextuality. This proof is obtained by considering all the measurements involved in the paradoxical effect -- the pre-selection, the post-selection, and the alternative possible intermediate measurements -- as alternative possible measurements at a single time.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. v2.0 revised in the light of referee comments, results unchange

3D Ultrastructure of the Cochlear Outer Hair Cell Lateral Wall Revealed By Electron Tomography.

Outer Hair Cells (OHCs) in the mammalian cochlea display a unique type of voltage-induced mechanical movement termed electromotility, which amplifies auditory signals and contributes to the sensitivity and frequency selectivity of mammalian hearing. Electromotility occurs in the OHC lateral wall, but it is not fully understood how the supramolecular architecture of the lateral wall enables this unique form of cellular motility. Employing electron tomography of high-pressure frozen and freeze-substituted OHCs, we visualized the 3D structure and organization of the membrane and cytoskeletal components of the OHC lateral wall. The subsurface cisterna (SSC) is a highly prominent feature, and we report that the SSC membranes and lumen possess hexagonally ordered arrays of particles. We also find the SSC is tightly connected to adjacent actin filaments by short filamentous protein connections. Pillar proteins that join the plasma membrane to the cytoskeleton appear as variable structures considerably thinner than actin filaments and significantly more flexible than actin-SSC links. The structurally rich organization and rigidity of the SSC coupled with apparently weaker mechanical connections between the plasma membrane (PM) and cytoskeleton reveal that the membrane-cytoskeletal architecture of the OHC lateral wall is more complex than previously appreciated. These observations are important for our understanding of OHC mechanics and need to be considered in computational models of OHC electromotility that incorporate subcellular features

Applications of satellite technology to broadband ISDN networks

Two satellite architectures for delivering broadband integrated services digital network (B-ISDN) service are evaluated. The first is assumed integral to an existing terrestrial network, and provides complementary services such as interconnects to remote nodes as well as high-rate multicast and broadcast service. The interconnects are at a 155 Mbs rate and are shown as being met with a nonregenerative multibeam satellite having 10-1.5 degree spots. The second satellite architecture focuses on providing private B-ISDN networks as well as acting as a gateway to the public network. This is conceived as being provided by a regenerative multibeam satellite with on-board ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) processing payload. With up to 800 Mbs offered, higher satellite EIRP is required. This is accomplished with 12-0.4 degree hopping beams, covering a total of 110 dwell positions. It is estimated the space segment capital cost for architecture one would be about $190M whereas the second architecture would be about$250M. The net user cost is given for a variety of scenarios, but the cost for 155 Mbs services is shown to be about $15-22/minute for 25 percent system utilization

Microbially derived bioactive peptides to improve human health

This thesis describes a study of various methods to produce bioactive peptides. Initially, the generation of anti-Cronobacter spp. peptides by fermentation of milk protein is described. Lactobacillus johnsonii DPC6026 was used to generate two previously described antimicrobial peptides. Phenotypic analysis indicated unsatisfactory casein hydrolysis. The genome of the strain was sequenced and annotated. Results showed a number of unique features present, most notably a large symmetrical inversion of approximately 750kb in comparison with the human isolate L. johnsonii NCC 533. The data suggest significant genetic diversity and intra-species genomic rearrangements within the L. johnsonii spp.. Cronobacter spp. have emerged as pathogens of concern to the powdered infant formula industry. Chapters 3 and 4 of this thesis describe novel methods to generate two antimicrobial peptides, Caseicin A and B. In Chapter 3 a bank of Bacillus strains was generated and investigated for caseicin production. Following casein hydrolysis by specific B. cereus and B. thuringiensis strains the peptides of interest were generated. Chapter 4 describes a sterile enzymatic method to generate peptides from casein. Bioinformatic tools were used to predict enzymes capable of liberating caseicin peptides from casein. Hydrolysates were generated using suitable enzymes, examined and some were found to produce peptides with activity against Cronobacter spp.. This study establishes a potential industrial-grade method to generate antimicrobial peptides. Administration of GLP-1 leads to improved glycaemic control in diabetes patients. Generation of a recombinant lactic acid bacteria capable of producing a GLP-1 analogue is described in Chapter 5. In-vivo analysis confirmed insulinotropic activity. The results illustrate a method using bacteriocin producing cellular machinery to generate bioactive peptides. This thesis describes the generation of bioactive peptides by bacterial fermentation, tailored enzymatic hydrolysis and recombinant bacterial methods. The techniques described contribute to bioactive peptide research with regards novel methods of production and industrial scale-up